OR-Sen: Merkley on Brink of Defeating Smith

Public Policy Polling (10/28-30, likely voters):

Jeff Merkley (D): 51

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 43

Dave Brownlow (C): 4

(MoE: ±2.6%)

Those are beautiful numbers, but these are even better: 59% of likely voters have filled in their ballots so far, and of that group, Merkley is ahead by 59-37. My crude back-of-the-cocktail napkin analysis says that Smith would have to take roughly two-thirds of the outstanding vote in order to pull off a win here. And while Smith leads among likely voters who have yet to complete their ballots (by 51-39 over Merkley), that’s not enough to erase the strong early edge that Merkley has built up.

Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 56-42.

UPDATE by Crisitunity:

Rasmussen (10/30, likely voters, 10/14 in parentheses):

Jeff Merkley (D): 49 (47)

Gordon Smith (R-inc): 46 (47)

Some other: 4 (n/a)

(MoE: ±4.5%)

Rasmussen polls Oregon too, and the results are good, with Merkley up by 3. Now 3 might not seem that confidence-inspiring compared with other pollsters’ numbers in this race, but bear in mind that a) this is the first time Merkley has sported a lead in a Rasmussen poll, and b) Rasmussen keeps on not including Dave Brownlow of the Constitution Party, who is bleeding off votes on Smith’s right flank (although this time they do report that 4% plan to vote for ‘some other’ candidate).

8 thoughts on “OR-Sen: Merkley on Brink of Defeating Smith”

  1. all three of the so-called “moderate” Senate Republicans up for election this year, but unfortunately we never got any traction in Maine. Hopefully we can at least get two out of the three (Oregon and Minnesota).

  2. The current turnout as of yesterday/today depending on the county:

    49% of Ds have voted.

    40% of Rs.

    30% of Indies/Others.

    About 50% of the votes cast so far in OR are cast by Ds…

    From the Oregonian:

          Here’s yet another sign of how much stronger the Democratic vote looks in early balloting in Oregon.

          As of Thursday afternoon, 49 percent of Democrats had returned their ballots, compared to just 41 percent for Republicans, according to the state Elections Division. All told, some 457,000 Democrats have returned their ballots. That more than 170,000 additional ballots than have been cast so far by Republicans.

          There’s not a single county in the state where R turnout has exceeded D turnout so far. And the gap is even slightly bigger in the key suburban counties of Washington and Clackamas counties.

          The state doesn’t keep statistics of ballot returns by parties in past elections. But what we do know is that Republicans – at least back as far as the 1960s – wind up having turnout numbers that at least slightly beat Democrats.

          If that doesn’t hold true this year – a year in which Democratic registration has skyrocketed – Republicans will be in even worse trouble. It could be that the aggressive voter turnout efforts by the Barack Obama campaign and the Democratic Party are leading their voters to get their ballots in earlier than are the Republicans.

  3. Sounds like a done deal to me. I’m glad Republicans are failing in spite of hiding behind a moderate image. That really says something about how the American public views the GOP brand.

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